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  • Home
  • About
  • Soundtrack
    • - Custard Pie
    • - The Rover
    • - In My Time of Dying
    • - Houses of the Holy
    • - Trampled Under Foot
    • - Kashmir
    • - In the Light
    • - Bron-Yr-Aur
    • - Down by the Seaside
    • - Ten Years Gone
    • - Night Flight
    • - The Wanton Song
    • - Boogie with Stu
    • - Black Country Woman
    • - Sick Again
    • - (whole album)
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6 Reasons Why This Is (Or Isn’t) The Worst Economy Since The Great Depression

April 29, 2020ffwbank capital ratios, bankruptcies, business cycle, central banking, COVID-19, debt-to-GDP ratios, fed funds rate, Federal Reserve, fiscal stimulus, FOMC, furloughs, GDP, Great Depression, helicopter money, home building, home equity extraction, inflation, mortgage debt, NBER, pandemic, recessions, spending power, unemployment, zombie companies

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Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Market Bottoms

March 23, 2020ffwbear markets, bull markets, business closures, coronavirus, COVID-19, exponential curves, pandemics, stock market

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Straightforward Calculations on COVID-19 Risks

March 2, 2020ffwCOVID-19, Marc Lipsitch, pandemic, recession3 Comments

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Where Is That Confounded Recession?

November 6, 2019ffw6-cycle forecast, animal spirits, bank credit, behavioral economics, Big-3 recession precursors, business cycle, circular flow, credit conditions, Fed, fiscal policy, house prices, housing sector, Keynesians, lending standards, mainstream economics, monetary policy, public policies, recession, spending capacity, stock prices, TSP12 Comments

business cycle

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U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast (Continued)

July 28, 2019ffwasset price cycles, bank credit, business cycle, business earnings, checklists, coincident indicators, component cycles, CPI, credit cycles, econometrics, economic forecasting, fiscal policy, foreign sector, GDP, home building cycle, household earnings, lagging indicators, leading indicators, monetary policy, recessions, S&P 500, six-cycle map, thin-air spending power, vicious loops, virtuous loops, yield curve

6-cycle forecast featured image

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U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast (Intro)

July 22, 2019ffwasset price cycles, business cycle, checklists, component cycles, credit cycles, econometrics, economic forecasting, financial economy, fiscal policy, foreign sector, home building cycle, monetary policy, real economy, recessions, six-cycle map, vicious loops, virtuous loops

6-cycle forecast featured image

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Testing the Fed’s Narrative with the Fed’s Data: QT Edition

June 24, 2019ffwBen Bernanke, credit growth, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Janet Yellen, monetary policy, net lending, QE1, QE2, QE3, quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, Z.110 Comments

peanuts gang with caption

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TSP Indicator Update: Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop and Remembering 1966

March 13, 2019ffwasset holding gains, bank credit, business cycle, circular flow, Federal Reserve, financial deflation, financial inflation, flow of funds, FOMC, Hyman Minsky, municipal bonds, recessions, reserve requirements, thin-air spending power, Treasury bonds, TSP, William McChesney Martin9 Comments

william mcchesney martin 3

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“Watch This Picture” Chartbook

November 28, 2018ffwbank credit, business cycles, business-cycle indicators, Case-Shiller, expansions, final domestic demand, financial deflation, financial economy, financial inflation, recessions, S&P, thin-air spending power, yield curve10 Comments

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You Might Like To Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall

November 28, 2018ffwbalance sheets, bank credit, business cycle, business-cycle indicators, economic theory, expansions, Federal Reserve, financial cycles, financial deflation, financial economy, financial inflation, flow of funds, holding gains, real economy, recessions, thin-air spending power, wealth effects20 Comments

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